Electricity Price Forecast Balkans — 24h AI Predictions
Our machine learning model generates next-day electricity price forecasts for BELEN, SEEPEX, HUPX, and GME — published daily by 14:00 CET, in time for day-ahead trading decisions.
How the forecast works
Data collection
Day-ahead prices, weather data, fuel market indices, and cross-border flow data are collected each morning from institutional sources.
Feature engineering
Calendar effects, seasonal patterns, hydro reservoir levels, and cross-zone spreads are encoded as predictive features.
Model inference
The trained model produces hourly price predictions for the next 24-hour period across all four exchanges.
Published by 14:00 CET
Forecasts are stored and served live on the dashboard, updated every trading day.
Why Balkan electricity prices are hard to forecast
The Western Balkans electricity market is characterised by high hydro dependency, limited interconnector capacity, and volatile cross-border flows. BELEN prices can decouple sharply from regional averages during periods of congestion or extreme hydro conditions. Standard statistical models struggle with these non-linearities — our ML approach captures them through a combination of gradient boosting and time-series features trained on several years of out-of-sample data.
Exchanges covered
BELEN (Montenegro) — Primary focus zone. Hydro-driven, strongly correlated with SEEPEX.
SEEPEX (Serbia) — Montenegro's largest cross-border counterpart. Coal and renewables mix.
HUPX (Hungary) — Central European price reference influencing regional spread dynamics.
GME (Italy North) — The premium Western European price signal, linked via the HVDC submarine cable.
See tomorrow's price forecast
Access live forecasts for all four exchanges on the dashboard.
Open Dashboard →